Stock
Story II: Follow-up; Rights and the wrongs.
“An Indian software company,
specific vertical to aviation industry.
Now an MNC after take over by an industry giant.
Best under a Billion according to Forbes Asia.
Acquired more than 34% shares by open offer, when SEBI rules required 20% offer.
Open offer price was more than double the present share price.
Aviation sector is the fastest growing sector of the Indian economy.
Whether Airlines make profit or not, Service providers to these sector will have boom time.
Identify this future Multi-Bagger.”
Now an MNC after take over by an industry giant.
Best under a Billion according to Forbes Asia.
Acquired more than 34% shares by open offer, when SEBI rules required 20% offer.
Open offer price was more than double the present share price.
Aviation sector is the fastest growing sector of the Indian economy.
Whether Airlines make profit or not, Service providers to these sector will have boom time.
Identify this future Multi-Bagger.”
Ans: The Stock was Accelya Kale
price then was : 86 to 94, available
in plenty
No active response to the blog /
story from the community.
After company paid Interim dividend
and declared final dividend
18/01/2012
|
Interim Dividend 13.50
|
29/10/2012
|
Final Dividend 10.00
|
and with Stock price of 130/140
Contacted Company in August 2012 and
fixed a meeting with CFO Mr. Gurudas Shenoy at Thane office,
Master Mind Group I refused to attend meeting, Not interested
in Software /Services.
Master Mind Group II reluctantly attended the Meeting,
Most of my thoughts and ideas about the company were reaffirmed
by the meeting.
Other learning’s:
1.
Parent has strong pipeline of customers
2.
Kale strong
in the Accounting aspect of the business
3.
Tremendous synergy / symbiosis between Accelya and Kale with
potential to get business from each other’s customers.
4.
While Investor community & likes of CARE’s
and Piramal’s keen to invest in Analytics business, here was a listed Indian
company doing Analytics of Aviation Industry.
5.
Concern that Aviation industry was in doldrums,
but Kales revenue and Payments were assured, Airline customers were dependent on Kales
services and hence were prompt in payments.
Mastermind Group felt that company
was good, Business was right, management was honest with no forward looking,
hyper statements or projections,
But
Stock was fully priced / over
priced
I Was fully committed to the Stock
idea, with full conviction despite no external support / feed back.
Subsequently,
Announcement of New orders / Airlines almost every week.
Stock going on Circuit breaker every day
Exchange puts stock in
Trade for Trade ???
Stock hits 400 In late Nov 2012 ,
Stock hits 400 In late Nov 2012 ,
23rd Nov
2012 HDFC securities comes out with a Buy report: Price: 336 Target : 399 to 499
????
After the big broker report, Stock steady with a lower bias.
My personal target
EPS or atleast 48/50, 12 /13 per quarter
PE 9of 10/ Price of atleast 480
Yet in Feb between price of 350 to 320 sold off the entire
lot. !!!!!!
Reasons:
1.
Mid cap collapse: Arshiya Intl, Opto circuit,
Orbit, Core etc. Market did not want to touch mid caps and this stock was in
Trade for Trade, may be the exchange had justifiable reasons !!!
2.
After HDFC report stock steady with a lower bias
3.
Broke the trailing stop loss of 350 ( charts
/Technical’s/ Trading)
4.
Volume of
2000 to 3000 per day, if came to a situation that had to off load it would take
more than 3 weeks to empty the folio
Today 10/05 2013
Stock Price Rs 510/- with dividend
of Rs 30/-
Lessons learnt:
Rights:
1.
Identification of a dark horse
2.
Conviction
3.
Follow up , research, news update, MEETING Management
Wrongs:
1.
Lost patience
2.
Confusing investment strategies with trading strategies.
3.
Putting /
considering all Mid caps in the same basket and extrapolating
4.
Under confidence in self compared to full time “
Stock Pundits”
What could have been done:
1.
Could have meet the Management again in Jan /
Feb 2013
2.
Could have contacted the author of report of
HDFC securities.
3.
Part sold the folio give room to buy if there is
a decline
4.
?/
5.
/?
6.
What are your suggestions / thoughts…..!
